← ResearchDevon Bath

Reading genetic decline from space

For my master’s I moved from fish to genes. I tested whether breaking up forest drains wildlife of genetic variety, across 104 species at once, using satellite maps and public genetic data.

Supervised by Dr. Colin Garroway and Dr. Stephen Petersen. Built on a genetic database created by Dr. Chloe Schmidt. MSc thesis, University of Manitoba, 2026.

Why I asked

Theodosius Dobzhansky wrote that “nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution.” Population genetics, the genetic make-up of a population, is where evolution plays out, so understanding it sharpens everything else in ecology.

The question I took on was a long-standing one: does breaking up habitat cost wildlife genetic diversity, and does that hold across species or only for some?

What I did

  1. Searched open data with code

    Wrote R code to search two public data repositories, Dryad and DataONE, and pulled 1,113 results.

  2. Screened it down

    Applied set criteria and added 12 new studies to Dr. Schmidt’s database, for 122 studies, 104 species and 2,233 sites.

  3. Put every site on the map

    Standardized coordinates, and read locations off published maps in QGIS where none were given.

  4. Measured fragmentation from space

    Used Python to process 24 years of European Space Agency land-cover maps and measure four kinds of fragmentation within 10 km of every site.

  5. Built the models

    Fit Bayesian models that compare species fairly, corrected for sites near each other looking alike, and checked the results against other model types.

  6. Wrote and presented it

    A 143-page thesis, presented at the Canadian Society for Ecology and Evolution in 2024 and 2025.

What I found

Where forest was broken up, mammals and amphibians carried less genetic variety. Birds barely registered it.

The pattern only appeared when all four measures of fragmentation were analysed together. Looked at one at a time, it vanished. Species also differed, and some even had more variety in broken-up forest.

More forest around a site

  • Mammals
  • Amphibians
  • Birds

More forest, more variety. Birds: no clear link.

More forest edge around a site

  • Mammals
  • Amphibians
  • Birds

More edge, less variety. Birds: no clear link.

Each dot is the best estimate and its line is the range the true effect likely falls in. Both panels come from the models that treat forest as habitat, with all four fragmentation measures allowed for at once.

Why it’s hard to see

In the thesis I set out why fragmentation’s effect on genes is hard to pin down. Here are a few of the reasons.

In the thesis: .

These are sketches of the ideas, not the thesis data. Each dot is an animal, and its colour stands for one version of a gene. More colours in a patch means more genetic variety.